Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,245,925$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(3.31 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,318,725.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 80.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,318,725.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $134,777$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,159.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,159.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,115,572$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $295,268$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(7.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{418,550.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 99.9)}}\) (asimptote \(418,550.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,730$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,630.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 87.0)}}\) (asimptote \(45,630.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,682$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $109,150$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,917.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 56.3)}}\) (asimptote \(105,917.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,818$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,657.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,657.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,548$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,332$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,499.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 176.0)}}\) (asimptote \(281,499.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $893$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(46.3 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,198.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 161.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,198.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,269$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,114$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,822.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 117.3)}}\) (asimptote \(77,822.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $880$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(129 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{923.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 66.9)}}\) (asimptote \(923.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,238$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,583$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(200 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,501.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(86,501.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $771$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(22.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,911$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $28,598$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(222 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,093.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 114.4)}}\) (asimptote \(60,093.1\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,172$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(9.89 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,611.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 88.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,611.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,353$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,391$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,636.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 126.3)}}\) (asimptote \(28,636.2\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $254$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.5 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,621$ on 2020-07-11
