Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,245,925$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(3.31 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,318,725.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 80.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,318,725.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $134,777$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,159.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,159.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,115,572$ on 2020-07-11

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $295,268$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(7.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{418,550.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 99.9)}}\) (asimptote \(418,550.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,730$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,630.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 87.0)}}\) (asimptote \(45,630.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,682$ on 2020-07-11

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,150$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,917.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 56.3)}}\) (asimptote \(105,917.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,818$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,657.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,657.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,548$ on 2020-07-11

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,332$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,499.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 176.0)}}\) (asimptote \(281,499.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $893$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(46.3 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,198.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 161.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,198.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,269$ on 2020-07-11

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,114$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,822.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 117.3)}}\) (asimptote \(77,822.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $880$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(129 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{923.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 66.9)}}\) (asimptote \(923.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,238$ on 2020-07-11

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,583$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(200 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,501.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(86,501.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $771$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(22.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,911$ on 2020-07-11

Guatemala

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,598$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(222 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,093.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 114.4)}}\) (asimptote \(60,093.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,172$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(9.89 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,611.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 88.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,611.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,353$ on 2020-07-11

El Salvador

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,391$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,636.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 126.3)}}\) (asimptote \(28,636.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $254$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.5 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,621$ on 2020-07-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Jamaica recovered 69%
Canada recovered 24%
Haiti recovered 22%

Jamaica

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $758$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(142 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{664.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(664.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(3.98 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $133$ on 2020-07-11

Haiti

Population $11,402,528$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,690$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(220 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,593.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 72.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,593.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-09 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $139$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(7.24 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 71.0)}}\) (asimptote \(159.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,961$ on 2020-07-11